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How the relationship between the crisis life cycle and mass
media content can better inform crisis communication.

Crises are unpredictable events that can impact on an organization’s viability, credibility, and reputation, and few topics have generated greater interest in communication over the past 15 years. This paper builds on early theory such as Fink (1986), and extends the crisis life-cycle theoretical model to enable a better understanding and prediction of the
changes and trends of mass media coverage during crises. This expanded model provides a framework to identify and understand the dynamic and multi-dimensional set of relationships that occurs during the crisis life cycle in a rapidly changing and challenging operational environment. Using the 2001 Ansett Airlines’ Easter groundings as a case study, this paper monitors mass media coverage during this organizational crisis. The analysis reinforces the view that, by using proactive strategies, public relations practitioners can better manage mass media crisis coverage.
Further, the understanding gained by extending the crisis life cycle to track when and how mass media content changes may help public relations practitioners craft messages and supply information at the outset of each stage of the crisis, thereby maintaining control of the message.
Introduction
Crises are unpredictable events that can impact on an organization’s viability, credibility
and reputation (Baker, 2001; Mitroff, Shrivastava, &Udwadia, 1987). They are a prominent feature of the business environment with the potential to damage any organization
(Baker,2001;Mitroff&Alpasian,2003;Pauchant&Mitroff,1992;Williams&Olaniran,2001).Examples of organizational crises that have received extensive mass media coverage include: the nuclear accidents at Chernobyl and Three Mile Island; the Exxon Valdez oil spill; Tylenol pain relief package tampering; Dow Corning breast implant litigation; the collapse of Enron; and the James Hardie Industries asbestos case. As organizations use mass media to communicate with stakeholders during crises(Arpan&Pompper,2003;Fearn-Banks,1996),the way mass media frame the coverage can impact on such an organization(Pan&Kosicki,1993; Patterson,2004).The media’s influence over a crisis has evolved with the digital revolution to instantaneous, exhaustive, global coverage (Barr,2000;Kimmel,2004;Michelson&Mouly,2002;).
This paper extends the crisis life cycle theoretical model(c.f.Barton,1993;Fearn- Banks,1996;Fink,1986;Mitroff,1996;)to better predict the changes and trends of mass
media coverage during crises. The expanded model provides a framework to identify and understand the dynamic and multi-dimensional set of relationships that occur during the crisis life cycle in a rapidly changing and challenging operational environment. Most crisis communication literature focuses on communicating to stakeholders during the turmoil generated by a crisis (e.g., Courtright & Hearit, 2002; Marra, 1992; Stephens, Malone & Bailey 2005;).This model, however, provides a working framework whereby proactive strategies for effective monitoring and management of mass media coverage in the initial or warning stage of a crisis can be developed. Little research in crisis management has integrated public relations, marketing, and management disciplines, with most focused on the effective management of crises by organizations from a business perspective (Barton,1993;Burson,1985;Dutton,1986; Kelly,1989;Mitroff et al.,1987).Other preliminary research into mass communication and crises has examined the role of mass media and explored methods employed to disseminate information to various stakeholders before, during, and after crises(Scanlon,1983;Wilkins &Patterson,1987).The investigations of Fink (1986), Marra (1992), Fearn-Banks(1996),
Coombs (1999,2002),Williams and Olaniran (2001), Courtright and Hearit (2002),and Stephens, Malone and Bailey (2005), indicate that crisis research has developed from prescriptive response strategy lists, to early theory and model development, to better understanding of the complex nature of crises. Until recently, proactive public relations management has been overlooked as a helpful tool for the successful management of organizational crises (Coombs, 2002; Fearn-Banks, 1996).Typically, the premise of crisis communication was to offset the potential negative consequences (Mitroff, 1996, 2001,
2003) that usually occur when organizations fail to respond to ‘warning’ signs of impending crisis (Fink, 1986).

Crisis life-cycle

The crisis life-cycle model is derived from the marketing product life-cycle model, which typically maps sales or consumption data over time. Product life-cycle theory suggests organizations should develop and implement marketing strategies pursuant with a service or product’s position relative to four stages of the product life-cycle (Kotler, 1991).Kotler (1991) asserts that marketers using the product life-cycle framework can manage products more successfully. The concept that crises also progress in a certain manner, or follow a cycle, was developed in the early 1980s and is consistent with crisis management literature from this period(Barton,1993;Coombs,1999; Fink,1986;Mitroff,1996;Sturges,1994). As marketing researchers used the product life cycle to interpret product and market dynamics, Fink (1986) applied the crisis life-cycle model to better understand crisis behaviours. Fink’s (1986) original model presents four distinct phases of a crisis: prodromal, acute, chronic, and resolution. As reflected in Figure 1, Fink’s original crisis life cycle has been further developed by Barton (1993), Mitroff(1996), and others to include an additional and vital(second)phase before the acute crisis stage. This phase, called the probing or preparation phase, is what Gonzalez-Herrero and Pratt (1996) identified as the opportunity for ‘crisis killing’.

In general, the crisis management literature acknowledges the need to approach each of the five stages with an individual management strategy to best manage the different dynamics and dimensions of each stage(Barton,1993; Fearn-Banks 1996;Mitroff,1996).The general framework for crisis communication presented in the literature makes the assumption that mass media coverage is important as it influences stakeholders’ opinions during a crisis(Egelhoff &Sen,1992).However, the literature does not specifically address changes in the content of mass media coverage during the crisis(Fink, 1986;Mitroff,1996).

This paper suggests that the amended crisis life-cycle model is a robust framework within which mass media coverage during a crisis can be predicted and managed. Figure 1(overleaf) presents the theoretical foundation of the extended crisis lifecycle framework and outlines the changing themes in mass media coverage during a crisis. We contend that each stage of the crisis life cycle contains different themes in mass media coverage, and each theme exhibits attributes pertinent to the stage to which it is allocated. The researchers have mapped the mass media content during each stage of the crisis using the Ansett safety crisis to illustrate our model.

The Ansett case


Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA)grounded Ansett Airlines’ entire fleet of ten Boeing 767 aircraft on Thursday,12 April 2001. The grounding was a result of what CASA termed Ansett’s ongoing structural, management, and personnel problems, and lack of proper control in the planning and execution of maintenance. The Easter 2001 grounding of Ansett cost the company$4.24 million and 20% of its market share(Goodsir,2001). To minimise these costs, there was a crucial need for adept crisis management tactics and a cohesive communication strategy. It is proposed that the extended crisis life cycle model provides the framework to track and respond to mass media coverage at each stage, rather than undertake what is the usual practice of one media response throughout all stages of the crisis.

For the purpose of this study, the principal focus was on identifying and describing themes in mass media content during the crisis rather than the effect these frames might have had on public opinion. Content analysis of print mass media only has been selected for this study. The data are drawn from four major Australian newspapers, The Australian, The Financial Review, The Age, and The Sydney Morning Herald. This paper explores the complex chain of themes(patterns)over time, tracking one trigger theme during the stages of the extended crisis life cycle model over a 6-month period, and examining the relationships among independent, intervening, and dependent variables.

The research material consisted of 269 newspapers articles where the name ‘Ansett’ and the word ‘safety’ appeared during the period January 1,2001,to June 30,2001.The articles were used as units of analysis, and their headline, position, and content were examined. Each article was classified according to a defined set of criteria presented in Appendix A.

The focal ‘trigger theme’, drawn from a pool of general themes, was ‘Ansett safety’. This trigger theme was selected after a count of all Ansett content in print media during the first six months of 2001.The researchers classified the units simultaneously to achieve intercoder reliability.

The focal trigger theme–the most frequent of the trigger themes in the study–was Ansett’s safety record regarding its 767-200 fleet. This theme appeared on 105 occasions(67%). The other trigger themes identified in the press content were:(a) Ansett’s purchase of Hazelton Airlines, (b) price war between four domestic carriers, (c) aircraft delays due to service failures, (d) Ansett’s financial stability, (e) Singapore Airlines’ proposed purchase of Ansett, (f) CASA investigations, (g) CASA Chief’s ability questioned, (h) declining passenger numbers, (i) Qantas purchase of Impulse Airlines, and (j) decline of the Ansett’s share price. One or more of these trigger themes appeared on 54 occasions (33%) in print mass media content. The focal trigger theme did not appear in the newspapers sampled during March, 2001. The trigger themes during this period were ‘financial stability for Ansett Airlines’ and ‘Singapore Airlines’ proposed purchase of Ansett Airlines’.(See Chart 1.)

Phase One–Terms: prodromal (Fink & Barton);signal detection (Mitroff); detection (Fearn-Banks) Researchers define the first stage of the model as the ‘crisis build up’ or prodromal phase. The model predicts that during the initial phase of a crisis, prodromes (issues that have the potential to become crises) appear as small news stories in mass media. Egelhoff and Sen (1992) support this claim in their development of a contingency model for managing a variety of corporate crises with the assertion that “…‘triggering events’ typically occur within the environment with which the organization is familiar and coverage of which often appears in mass media” (p.467). Sturges (1994) defined this type of coverage as a trigger theme that can pose a potential threat to an organization. Organizations that remain sensitive to their environment, and monitor mass media coverage and relevant trends in coverage, are better positioned to recognize the development of crises (Seeger, Sellnow & Ulmer, 2001).

The model suggests that mass media coverage will contain a pool of trigger themes, each presenting a brief discussion on active prodromes. The level of analysis and detail of each trigger theme in mass media is low and such themes appear as minor news stories. Trigger themes do not receive in-depth analysis or exhaustive scrutiny by mass media. Pearson and Clair(1998)assert that when organizations choose not to respond to trigger themes, mass media may report rumours to fill the void. The trigger themes appear as symptoms or precursors to crises in mass media coverage and are a vital first factor in tracking mass media content through the expanded model. If the triggers are recognized by the organization, it can implement activities to develop benefits or reduce the negative impact of the possible crisis (Barton,1993;Fearn-Banks,1996; Mitroff, 1996). Barton(1993), Mitroff(1996), Fearn-Banks(1996), and Seymour and Moore(2000) contend that management of the message can diminish the impact of the impending crisis and lessen the potential impact of the prodromal triggers. Consistent with the model, seven different trigger themes, including the focal trigger theme selected for the study, appeared in newspaper coverage of Ansett Airlines during January 2001. Numerous triggers appeared in the media, and as far as can be judged by the media coverage in the sample, Ansett’s management failed to respond, or attempt to address, any of the triggers.